The season of end-of-year leadership retreats are upon us. Next Stage is supporting a number of organizations as they prepare for an unprecedented set of circumstances in 2026, and one thing is certain:
It’s difficult to plan when the ground feels like it’s shifting beneath your feet.
The ongoing federal government shutdown has created real consequences across the social good sector. Many organizations are seeing ripple effects from delayed contracts, paused grants, and reduced cash flow. The reality is that this moment of instability is not isolated, but rather a part of a larger wave of change resulting from ongoing policy shifts and legislative stalemates.
So yes: things feel uncertain. But “wait and see” is not a strategy. Sitting on the fence until the dust settles is the surest way to get left behind. Because what distinguishes resilient organizations isn’t an innate ability to predict the future, but a willingness to prepare for it (uncertain as it might be).
If you’re heading into your end-of-year retreat or annual planning process, here’s a simple checklist to help get your nonprofit ready for 2026.
1. Conduct a Risk Assessment
Federal policy impacts won’t disappear when the shutdown ends. Many analysts predict 2026 will be a staging year for broader spending shifts in 2027, which makes now an essential time to examine your organization’s exposure.
- Where are you reliant on government contracts or federal programs?
- How might indirect impacts, like delayed reimbursements, declining consumer confidence, or disruptions to partner agencies, affect your work?
To get started, gather a small cross-functional team, including finance, operations, and program leaders, and spend a few hours mapping your dependencies. Identify all major revenue streams, partnerships, and contracts, then rate each by both likelihood and impact of disruption. Explore: What might happen if this funding source pauses for three months? If this vendor can’t deliver? If this partner downsizes? Document your findings in a simple risk matrix and note which exposures can be mitigated now versus monitored later.
The Bottom Line: Performing a proactive risk audit can help you identify your exposure before gaps become crises. Use this process to strengthen your balance sheet and clarify your strategy.
2. Gather Metrics and Know Thy Databases
If 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that data clarity equals decision clarity. On the revenue side, review your fundraising or new business data to pinpoint trends:
- Which funders or customers are dependable?
- Where are you seeing growth?
- Where are you overexposed?
On the operations side, consider how your organizational structure supports (or hinders) agility.
Activate these efforts by pulling a year-over-year comparison from your CRM or accounting system. Look beyond totals to instead segment your data by source, type, and relationship length to see what’s really driving results. Then, bring that same discipline to internal metrics: staff capacity, program utilization, and expense categories. Schedule a short data review session with your leadership team to translate those numbers into insights, identifying where to double down and where to pivot.
The Bottom Line: You can’t build resilience on gut instinct alone. Use your databases to guide resource allocation, performance targets, and scenario planning. Numbers tell stories; make sure you’re listening.
3. Check In With Peers
You’re not alone in this uncertainty. Every nonprofit executive, municipal leader, and small-business owner is navigating similar headwinds. Rather than making decisions in isolation, use this moment to engage your peers and compare notes on what’s changing.
Create a top-20 outreach list by identifying the leaders and partner organizations whose perspectives you trust the most. Schedule brief, focused conversations – even 20-30 minutes can reveal valuable insights about funding pipelines, staffing shifts, and community demand. Consider hosting a small roundtable or virtual session to surface shared challenges and spark new ideas, and commit to at least one peer discussion each week through February 2026.
The Bottom Line: Shared learning uncovers blind spots and builds a sense of solidarity across the sector. In volatile times, collaboration becomes a risk-mitigation strategy.
4. Build Scenario Plans
Uncertainty is unsettling, but ignoring it doesn’t make it go away.
Build your framework by outlining three plausible futures for your organization over the next 18 months: best case, middle ground, and worst case. In each, map your financial position, staffing levels, and program adjustments. Assign clear decision triggers: at what point would you pause hiring, cut expenses, or shift priorities? Involve both leadership and frontline staff so plans are realistic and account for downsides that are not readily apparent.
Keep these scenarios handy and revisit them quarterly. Doing so turns preparation into a habit rather than a reaction.
The Bottom Line: Scenario planning is less about accurately predicting disruption and more about building the muscle to adapt when it happens. The goal of this exercise is steady footing, no matter how unpredictable the future may appear.
An Ounce of Prevention
We often tell clients that the work of planning is the work of hope. It’s an act of optimism to prepare for a future you can’t yet see
The coming year will test many institutions, but those who make time to plan now — with clarity, courage, and a willingness to adapt — will enter the new year from a position of strength.
If your organization is ready to take a proactive approach, we’d welcome a conversation about how our team can help facilitate a risk assessment, scenario planning process, or end-of-year strategy retreat to help get your nonprofit ready for 2026.
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